| Strategist/Firm | Downside Target | Potential Drop % from Current (5,288) | Direction | Potential Drop % from ATH (approx. 6,300) | Key Catalyst/Scenario | Additional Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy Forecast Agency | 3,969 (July) | -24.9% | ↓ | -37.0% | Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP | Most bearish; sees further downside into summer |
| Economy Forecast Agency | 4,026 (June) | -23.8% | ↓ | -36.1% | Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP | Persistent volatility through Q2 |
| Economy Forecast Agency | 4,256 (May) | -19.5% | ↓ | -32.4% | Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP | Short-term downside risk |
| Economy Forecast Agency | 4,647 (April) | -12.1% | ↓ | -26.2% | Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP | Near-term risk; aligns with recent volatility |
| UBS | Not specified | Not specified | ↓ | Not specified | Tariff scenarios, earnings risk | Expects further declines into Q3, especially if tariffs persist |
| Capital Economics | 5,500 (2025 YE) | -14.9% (from ATH) / -14.9% (from 6,300) | ↓ | -12.7% | Faltering AI trade, tariffs | Cut forecast from 7,000 to 5,500 for 2025 |
| UBS | 5,800 (2025 YE) | +9.7% | ↑ | -7.9% | Tariffs, earnings risk | Lowered YE target from 6,400 to 5,800 |
| RBC | 5,550 (2025 YE) | +5.0% | ↑ | -11.9% | Tariffs, earnings risk | Lowered YE target from 6,200 to 5,550 |
| MarketWatch Consensus | 5,950 (2025 YE) | +12.5% | ↑ | -5.6% | Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes | Median of major Wall Street forecasts |
| Morningstar/MarketWatch | 6,056 (avg) | +14.5% | ↑ | -3.9% | Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes | Average of updated analyst forecasts |
| Bill Gross (Bond King) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Tariff turmoil | Warns investors not to buy the dip; "falling knife" |
| Barclays | Not specified | Not specified | N/A | Not specified | Tech underperformance, sector risks | Warns tech sector underperformance is outsized; expects tech to lead recovery |
| JPMorgan | Not specified | Not specified | N/A | Not specified | Tariffs, recession risk | 60% chance of global recession if tariffs persist |
Notes:
Current S&P 500 level used: 5,288 (as of April 23, 2025).
Approximate all-time high (ATH): 6,300 (early 2025).
Economy Forecast Agency provides the most granular and bearish month-by-month outlook, with a possible bottom near 3,969 in July 2025.
Wall Street consensus for year-end 2025 has dropped from the 6,400–7,000 range to a median of 5,950, with a wide range of 5,200–7,000.
UBS, RBC, Capital Economics have all slashed their year-end targets in response to tariff uncertainty and deteriorating earnings expectations.
Summary of Changes from Previous Forecast
Bearish projections have grown more severe: The Economy Forecast Agency now sees a potential S&P 500 bottom as low as 3,969 in July 2025, representing a nearly 25% drop from current levels and a 37% drop from the all-time high.
Wall Street year-end targets have been slashed: The median forecast has dropped from around 6,400–7,000 to 5,950, with several major banks (UBS, RBC, Capital Economics) lowering their targets by 10–15% in the past month.
Forecast range has widened: The spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end targets has expanded dramatically, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
Tariffs and earnings risk dominate outlook: Most strategists cite persistent tariff threats, margin compression, and the risk of a global recession as the primary reasons for reduced targets and increased downside risk.
Tech sector singled out: Barclays notes that technology's underperformance is already outsized, but expects it to lead any eventual recovery.
Sources Used in This Update
CNBC (April 21, 2025): Live market updates and UBS/Barclays commentary.
Morningstar/MarketWatch (April 4, 2025): Analyst target downgrades, Capital Economics, UBS, RBC, Bill Gross.
Investopedia (April 12, 2025): Analyst forecast range and averages.
MarketWatch (April 15, 2025): Year-end consensus and forecast methodology.
Yahoo Finance UK (April 7, 2025): Economy Forecast Agency month-by-month downside targets.
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