Updated S&P 500 Downside Projections and Analyst Forecasts (as of April 24, 2025)

Strategist/Firm	Downside Target	Potential Drop % from Current (5,288)	Direction	Potential Drop % from ATH (approx. 6,300)	Key Catalyst/Scenario	Additional Notes
Economy Forecast Agency	3,969 (July)	-24.9%	↓	-37.0%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Most bearish; sees further downside into summer
Economy Forecast Agency	4,026 (June)	-23.8%	↓	-36.1%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Persistent volatility through Q2
Economy Forecast Agency	4,256 (May)	-19.5%	↓	-32.4%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Short-term downside risk
Economy Forecast Agency	4,647 (April)	-12.1%	↓	-26.2%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Near-term risk; aligns with recent volatility
UBS	Not specified	Not specified	↓	Not specified	Tariff scenarios, earnings risk	Expects further declines into Q3, especially if tariffs persist
Capital Economics	5,500 (2025 YE)	-14.9% (from ATH) / -14.9% (from 6,300)	↓	-12.7%	Faltering AI trade, tariffs	Cut forecast from 7,000 to 5,500 for 2025
UBS	5,800 (2025 YE)	+9.7%	↑	-7.9%	Tariffs, earnings risk	Lowered YE target from 6,400 to 5,800
RBC	5,550 (2025 YE)	+5.0%	↑	-11.9%	Tariffs, earnings risk	Lowered YE target from 6,200 to 5,550
MarketWatch Consensus	5,950 (2025 YE)	+12.5%	↑	-5.6%	Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes	Median of major Wall Street forecasts
Morningstar/MarketWatch	6,056 (avg)	+14.5%	↑	-3.9%	Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes	Average of updated analyst forecasts
Bill Gross (Bond King)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Tariff turmoil	Warns investors not to buy the dip; "falling knife"
Barclays	Not specified	Not specified	N/A	Not specified	Tech underperformance, sector risks	Warns tech sector underperformance is outsized; expects tech to lead recovery
JPMorgan	Not specified	Not specified	N/A	Not specified	Tariffs, recession risk	60% chance of global recession if tariffs persist

Notes:

• Current S&P 500 level used: 5,288 (as of April 23, 2025).

• Approximate all-time high (ATH): 6,300 (early 2025).

• Economy Forecast Agency provides the most granular and bearish month-by-month outlook, with a possible bottom near 3,969 in July 2025.

• Wall Street consensus for year-end 2025 has dropped from the 6,400–7,000 range to a median of 5,950, with a wide range of 5,200–7,000.

• UBS, RBC, Capital Economics have all slashed their year-end targets in response to tariff uncertainty and deteriorating earnings expectations.

Summary of Changes from Previous Forecast

• Bearish projections have grown more severe: The Economy Forecast Agency now sees a potential S&P 500 bottom as low as 3,969 in July 2025, representing a nearly 25% drop from current levels and a 37% drop from the all-time high.

• Wall Street year-end targets have been slashed: The median forecast has dropped from around 6,400–7,000 to 5,950, with several major banks (UBS, RBC, Capital Economics) lowering their targets by 10–15% in the past month.

• Forecast range has widened: The spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end targets has expanded dramatically, reflecting heightened uncertainty.

• Tariffs and earnings risk dominate outlook: Most strategists cite persistent tariff threats, margin compression, and the risk of a global recession as the primary reasons for reduced targets and increased downside risk.

• Tech sector singled out: Barclays notes that technology's underperformance is already outsized, but expects it to lead any eventual recovery.

Sources Used in This Update

• CNBC (April 21, 2025): Live market updates and UBS/Barclays commentary.

• Morningstar/MarketWatch (April 4, 2025): Analyst target downgrades, Capital Economics, UBS, RBC, Bill Gross.

• Investopedia (April 12, 2025): Analyst forecast range and averages.

• MarketWatch (April 15, 2025): Year-end consensus and forecast methodology.

• Yahoo Finance UK (April 7, 2025): Economy Forecast Agency month-by-month downside targets.

S&P 500 Potential Downside Projections by Analysts

Strategist/Firm	Downside Target	Potential Drop % from Current	Direction	Potential Drop % from ATH	Key Catalyst/Scenario	Additional Notes
Morgan Stanley	4,500	12.28%	↓	~22%	Earnings disappointments	Particularly bearish outlook
UBS	4,700-4,900	4.48-8.38%	↓	Up to 22% from ATH	Economic downturn	Warns of potential further 10-15% drop
JPMorgan	4,800	6.43%	↓	~16%	Continued inflation concerns	Sees potential buying opportunity
Technical Analysts	4,850	5.46%	↓	21% from Feb peak	Failure to hold 5,200 support	Currently ~16% below all-time high
Barclays	4,900	4.48%	↓	~15%	Technical support breach	Focuses on technical levels
Wells Fargo	4,950	3.51%	↓	~14%	Growth concerns	Moderate bearish stance
Bank of America	5,000	2.53%	↓	12% from late March	Recession scenario	Projects year-end recovery to 5,500
Deutsche Bank	5,000	2.53%	↓	~13%	Technical breakdown	Points to key support at 5,000
Credit Suisse	5,050	1.56%	↓	~12%	Short-term volatility	Relatively optimistic outlook
Goldman Sachs	5,100	0.58%	↓	~10%	Cooling economy	Less pessimistic than peers
Citigroup	5,200	-1.36%	↑	~9%	Policy uncertainty	More moderate decline projection
Charles Schwab	5,300	-3.31%	↑	~8%	Market sentiment shift	Sees limited additional downside

Market Context

The S&P 500 currently stands at approximately 5,130, already down about 14% since the start of 2025 and approximately 16% below its all-time high. Despite this correction, analyst projections vary significantly:

• Most Bearish View: Morgan Stanley projects a further 12.28% decline to 4,500

• Most Bullish View: Charles Schwab suggests a potential 3.31% gain to 5,300

• Median Projection: Approximately 4,975, representing a ~3% additional decline

Key factors influencing these projections include:

• Tariff concerns and trade tensions

• Inflation persistence

• Potential economic slowdown or recession

• Technical support/resistance levels

• Market sentiment indicators

Despite the current downturn, the longer-term median forecast among 17 investment banks still suggests the index could reach 6,500 by year-end, representing significant upside from current levels if market conditions improve.