| Strategist/Firm | Downside Target | Potential Drop % from Current | Direction | Potential Drop % from ATH | Key Catalyst/Scenario | Additional Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 4,500 | 12.28% | ↓ | ~22% | Earnings disappointments | Particularly bearish outlook |
| UBS | 4,700-4,900 | 4.48-8.38% | ↓ | Up to 22% from ATH | Economic downturn | Warns of potential further 10-15% drop |
| JPMorgan | 4,800 | 6.43% | ↓ | ~16% | Continued inflation concerns | Sees potential buying opportunity |
| Technical Analysts | 4,850 | 5.46% | ↓ | 21% from Feb peak | Failure to hold 5,200 support | Currently ~16% below all-time high |
| Barclays | 4,900 | 4.48% | ↓ | ~15% | Technical support breach | Focuses on technical levels |
| Wells Fargo | 4,950 | 3.51% | ↓ | ~14% | Growth concerns | Moderate bearish stance |
| Bank of America | 5,000 | 2.53% | ↓ | 12% from late March | Recession scenario | Projects year-end recovery to 5,500 |
| Deutsche Bank | 5,000 | 2.53% | ↓ | ~13% | Technical breakdown | Points to key support at 5,000 |
| Credit Suisse | 5,050 | 1.56% | ↓ | ~12% | Short-term volatility | Relatively optimistic outlook |
| Goldman Sachs | 5,100 | 0.58% | ↓ | ~10% | Cooling economy | Less pessimistic than peers |
| Citigroup | 5,200 | -1.36% | ↑ | ~9% | Policy uncertainty | More moderate decline projection |
| Charles Schwab | 5,300 | -3.31% | ↑ | ~8% | Market sentiment shift | Sees limited additional downside |
Market Context
The S&P 500 currently stands at approximately 5,130, already down about 14% since the start of 2025 and approximately 16% below its all-time high. Despite this correction, analyst projections vary significantly:
Most Bearish View: Morgan Stanley projects a further 12.28% decline to 4,500
Most Bullish View: Charles Schwab suggests a potential 3.31% gain to 5,300
Median Projection: Approximately 4,975, representing a ~3% additional decline
Key factors influencing these projections include:
Tariff concerns and trade tensions
Inflation persistence
Potential economic slowdown or recession
Technical support/resistance levels
Market sentiment indicators
Despite the current downturn, the longer-term median forecast among 17 investment banks still suggests the index could reach 6,500 by year-end, representing significant upside from current levels if market conditions improve.