Big Banks earning show in one graph.

Graph and numbers of top Big Banks earnings and % price for the first quarter of 2023,

C:

in USD	Actual	Estimate	Beat/Miss
Revenue	18.0B	18.0B	+0.2%
EBIT	5.02B	5.07B	-1.0%
EPS	1.16	1.20	-3.5%

JPM:

in USD	Actual	Estimate	Beat/Miss
Revenue	34.5B	34.2B	+0.9%
EBIT	15.5B	14.2B	+9.0%
EPS	3.57	3.10	+15.0%

WFC:

in USD	Actual	Estimate	Beat/Miss
Revenue	19.7B	20.0B	-1.9%
EBIT	3.46B	5.04B	-31.4%
EPS	1.45	1.10	+32.6%

BAC:

in USD	Actual	Estimate	Beat/Miss
Revenue	24.5B	24.2B	+1.5%
EBIT	8.99B	8.77B	+2.5%
EPS	0.85	0.77	+10.9%

GS: Short-dated equity puts have started to be attractive again

Following a year when equity options were too expensive, short-dated equity puts have started to be attractive again with the VIX close to 20. Current implied vols look low compared with average performance during S&P 500 sell-offs in particular for European indices, where risk premia have reset the most. While FX vol has not reset as much as risky assets we think puts on selective non-USD 'risk off' crosses screen attractive, such as CAD/CHF and GBP/CHF

10 soft landing indicators.

1. The US labor market is rebalancing.

2. Fed is approaching terminal rate and will be pausing soon.

3. Overheating and wage-price acceleration is off the table.

4. US recession probability is lower than people think.

5. Corporate earnings collapse is less likely than people think.

6. US consumer and corporate balance sheets remain strong.

7. Global inflation pressure has peaked, and sentiment will bottom.

8. Soft (sentiment) data could be overstating economic weakness due to the nature of diffusion indexes and the way they can overshoot when cycles are extremely fast.

9. High nominal inflation is bad for sentiment but good for nominal growth. This is part of the reason for the massive wedge between soft and hard data.

10. The US is in a much better position than most countries because so much froth and leverage was released in 2008. Froth and leverage remain abundant and interest sensitivity remains high in places like Canada, the UK, etc.