Updated S&P 500 Downside Projections and Analyst Forecasts (as of August 19, 2025)

Strategist/Firm	Downside/Upside Target	Potential Drop/Gain % from Current (6,449)	Direction	Key Catalyst/Scenario	Additional Notes
BCA Research	4,100 (2025 YE)	-36.4%	↓↓	Global recession, 10% earnings decline	Most bearish; expects recession in 2025
BCA Research (revised)	4,450 (revised)	-31.0%	↓↓	DOGE cuts, tariff uncertainty	Reduced from 4,100 due to policy risks
Evercore ISI	5,400-5,500 (15% drop)	-16.3% to -15.3%	↓	Stagflation, tariff volatility	Former bull turned cautious on stagflation
Wells Fargo	5,900-6,100 (correction)	-8.5% to -5.4%	↓	Historical correction pattern	Seasonal weakness + historical patterns
UBS	6,300 (revised up from 5,800)	-2.3%	→	Tariff uncertainty subsiding	Raised target as tariff fears ease
Société Générale (Bubble Warning)	6,900 (base) / 7,500 (bubble)	+7.0% / +16.3%	↑ / ⚠	Fed rate cuts creating bubble	Warning level at 7,500 signals bubble
Morgan Stanley	6,500 (2025 YE)	+0.8%	→	Rate cuts, earnings broadening	Maintains constructive outlook
Goldman Sachs	6,500-6,600 (revised up)	+0.8% to +2.3%	→ / ↑	Continued US expansion, AI growth	Slightly raised from previous targets
JPMorgan	6,000-6,500 (range)	-7.0% to +0.8%	↓ / →	Economic slowdown, cautious Fed	Range reflects policy uncertainty
Deutsche Bank	7,000 (2025 YE)	+8.6%	↑	Strong buybacks, Trump policies	Among most bullish on Trump policies
Oppenheimer	7,100 (2025 YE)	+10.1%	↑	AI advancement, economic strength	Highest target, cites strong fundamentals
Bank of America	6,300 (revised up)	-2.3%	→	Lower equity risk premium	Raised as equity quality improves
RBC Capital Markets	5,550 (2025 YE)	-13.9%	↓	Trade policy headwinds	Cut significantly due to trade risks
Yardeni Research	7,000 (2025 YE)	+8.6%	↑	Economic fundamentals, AI	Bullish on structural growth trends
Fundstrat (Tom Lee)	6,600 (YE) / 7,000 (mid-year)	+2.3% / +8.6%	→ / ↑	AI growth, market recovery	Two targets: mid-year peak, YE trough
Wall Street Consensus (Median)	6,600 (2025 YE)	+2.3%	→	Consensus moderate optimism	Reflects moderate Wall Street optimism
Wall Street Consensus (Average)	6,630 (2025 YE)	+2.8%	↑	Wall Street average forecast	Average of major firm forecasts

Notes:

• Current S&P 500 level used: 6,449 (as of August 19, 2025)
• BCA Research provides the most bearish outlook, projecting a potential 36% decline to 4,100 by year-end, citing global recession and earnings collapse
• Evercore ISI warns of a 15% correction to 5,400-5,500 range, representing the most significant near-term downside risk from a traditionally bullish firm
• September catalyst focus: Most analysts cite the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and September 11 CPI report as critical inflection points
• Société Générale uniquely warns of bubble conditions if S&P 500 exceeds 7,500, driven by aggressive Fed rate cuts
• Wall Street consensus has moderated from earlier 2025 projections, with median forecast dropping to 6,600 from previous 6,800-7,000 range

Summary of Changes from Previous Forecast

Bearish projections have intensified: BCA Research now sees a potential S&P 500 bottom as low as 4,100 in a recession scenario, representing a 36% drop from current levels and the most severe Wall Street forecast for 2025.

Former bulls turn cautious: Evercore ISI, previously among the most bullish firms, slashed its target by over 17% and now warns of stagflation risks and 15% downside potential.

September becomes the focal point: Unlike previous forecasts focused on tariff impacts, current projections center on September's economic calendar, particularly the FOMC meeting and CPI data as market-moving catalysts.

Bubble warnings emerge: Société Générale introduces a new risk framework, warning that Fed rate cuts could drive the market into bubble territory above 7,500, requiring defensive positioning.

Forecast dispersion widens dramatically: The range between most bearish (4,100) and most bullish (7,100) targets has expanded to 3,000 points, reflecting unprecedented uncertainty about economic trajectory.

Key September catalysts dominate outlook:

• September 11 CPI Report: Critical inflation data 5 days before FOMC
• September 16-17 FOMC Meeting: 96% probability of rate cut priced in
• Seasonal weakness patterns: September historically the worst month for equities
• Technical support at 6,100: Former resistance level now critical support

Sources Used in This Update

• CNBC (August 12-19, 2025): CPI data, FOMC meeting expectations, analyst target updates
• Reuters (August 15, 2025): Fed rate cut probability, economist surveys
• Business Insider (August 12, 2025): Seasonal weakness analysis, Evercore downside projections
• Investopedia (August 19, 2025): Jackson Hole speech analysis, market volatility warnings
• Bloomberg/Financial Media (August 2025): Updated analyst forecasts from major Wall Street firms
• Yahoo Finance UK (June-August 2025): BCA Research recession forecasts, analyst target compilation