Investing Spotlight: ICE vs. CME Group – Two Paths to Profit in 2025

For the remainder of 2025 I see compelling opportunities in both Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and CME Group. The key differentiator between these two financial infrastructure giants lies in their business models and revenue durability.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) stands out for its diversified, recurring revenue streams. In Q1 2025, ICE reported record net revenues of $2.5 billion, up 8% year-over-year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.72. The company’s robust growth is underpinned by its data services and mortgage technology segments, which provide stable, subscription-based income. Data services alone have delivered 43 consecutive quarters of growth, while ICE Mortgage Technology posted a 98% year-over-year jump in adjusted operating income in Q4 2023. This balance of recurring and transactional revenue—approximately 55% from exchanges, 28% from fixed income and data services, and 17% from mortgage technology—offers resilience against market volatility. ICE’s net margin for 2024 was an impressive 44.26%, reflecting strong operational efficiency.

CME Group offers a more concentrated, trading-driven model. In Q1 2025, CME delivered record revenue of $1.64 billion (up 10% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $2.80, beating expectations. Over 80% of CME’s revenue comes from clearing and transaction fees, with a gross profit margin of 100%—a testament to its operational leverage and pricing power in derivatives markets. The company benefits from increased trading volumes, particularly in commodities, currencies, and energy—essential goods that will remain in high demand.

To recap, for investors seeking stability, ICE’s recurring revenue and diversified model present a lower-risk profile. For those comfortable with market volatility and cyclicality, CME’s pure-play on trading and clearing offers higher-margin, volume-driven upside. Both companies, however, demonstrate strong profitability, robust margins, and leadership in their respective niches, making them attractive for a well-balanced portfolio.

Updated S&P 500 Downside Projections and Analyst Forecasts (as of April 24, 2025)

Strategist/Firm	Downside Target	Potential Drop % from Current (5,288)	Direction	Potential Drop % from ATH (approx. 6,300)	Key Catalyst/Scenario	Additional Notes
Economy Forecast Agency	3,969 (July)	-24.9%	↓	-37.0%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Most bearish; sees further downside into summer
Economy Forecast Agency	4,026 (June)	-23.8%	↓	-36.1%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Persistent volatility through Q2
Economy Forecast Agency	4,256 (May)	-19.5%	↓	-32.4%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Short-term downside risk
Economy Forecast Agency	4,647 (April)	-12.1%	↓	-26.2%	Tariffs, inflation, negative GDP	Near-term risk; aligns with recent volatility
UBS	Not specified	Not specified	↓	Not specified	Tariff scenarios, earnings risk	Expects further declines into Q3, especially if tariffs persist
Capital Economics	5,500 (2025 YE)	-14.9% (from ATH) / -14.9% (from 6,300)	↓	-12.7%	Faltering AI trade, tariffs	Cut forecast from 7,000 to 5,500 for 2025
UBS	5,800 (2025 YE)	+9.7%	↑	-7.9%	Tariffs, earnings risk	Lowered YE target from 6,400 to 5,800
RBC	5,550 (2025 YE)	+5.0%	↑	-11.9%	Tariffs, earnings risk	Lowered YE target from 6,200 to 5,550
MarketWatch Consensus	5,950 (2025 YE)	+12.5%	↑	-5.6%	Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes	Median of major Wall Street forecasts
Morningstar/MarketWatch	6,056 (avg)	+14.5%	↑	-3.9%	Tariffs, earnings, recovery hopes	Average of updated analyst forecasts
Bill Gross (Bond King)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Tariff turmoil	Warns investors not to buy the dip; "falling knife"
Barclays	Not specified	Not specified	N/A	Not specified	Tech underperformance, sector risks	Warns tech sector underperformance is outsized; expects tech to lead recovery
JPMorgan	Not specified	Not specified	N/A	Not specified	Tariffs, recession risk	60% chance of global recession if tariffs persist

Notes:

• Current S&P 500 level used: 5,288 (as of April 23, 2025).

• Approximate all-time high (ATH): 6,300 (early 2025).

• Economy Forecast Agency provides the most granular and bearish month-by-month outlook, with a possible bottom near 3,969 in July 2025.

• Wall Street consensus for year-end 2025 has dropped from the 6,400–7,000 range to a median of 5,950, with a wide range of 5,200–7,000.

• UBS, RBC, Capital Economics have all slashed their year-end targets in response to tariff uncertainty and deteriorating earnings expectations.

Summary of Changes from Previous Forecast

• Bearish projections have grown more severe: The Economy Forecast Agency now sees a potential S&P 500 bottom as low as 3,969 in July 2025, representing a nearly 25% drop from current levels and a 37% drop from the all-time high.

• Wall Street year-end targets have been slashed: The median forecast has dropped from around 6,400–7,000 to 5,950, with several major banks (UBS, RBC, Capital Economics) lowering their targets by 10–15% in the past month.

• Forecast range has widened: The spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end targets has expanded dramatically, reflecting heightened uncertainty.

• Tariffs and earnings risk dominate outlook: Most strategists cite persistent tariff threats, margin compression, and the risk of a global recession as the primary reasons for reduced targets and increased downside risk.

• Tech sector singled out: Barclays notes that technology's underperformance is already outsized, but expects it to lead any eventual recovery.

Sources Used in This Update

• CNBC (April 21, 2025): Live market updates and UBS/Barclays commentary.

• Morningstar/MarketWatch (April 4, 2025): Analyst target downgrades, Capital Economics, UBS, RBC, Bill Gross.

• Investopedia (April 12, 2025): Analyst forecast range and averages.

• MarketWatch (April 15, 2025): Year-end consensus and forecast methodology.

• Yahoo Finance UK (April 7, 2025): Economy Forecast Agency month-by-month downside targets.

The EUR/USD Surge: A Warning Sign for the US Economy

EURUSD vs. Rate Differential Chart

The chart compares the EURUSD exchange rate (yellow line) with the 10-year nominal interest rate differential between the US and Europe (white line). 

Historically, these two moved in tandem—higher US rates meant a stronger Dollar. But since late 2024, they’ve diverged: the Euro is surging against the Dollar, even as the rate differential favors the US. In simple questions: what’s going on and why is this bad for the US economy?

What’s Happening?

The Euro’s rise despite higher US interest rates signals a breakdown in traditional market correlations. Normally, higher US rates attract investors to US assets, strengthening the Dollar. But now, investors are pulling money out of the US and investing elsewhere—like Europe. This an “asset allocation shift,” driven by global portfolio managers diversifying away from US assets. This is clear from the chart: while the rate differential suggests the Dollar should be stronger, EURUSD is climbing, hitting 1.142 by April 2025.

Why Is This Happening?

Several factors are at play. First, Trump’s tariffs have sparked a sell-off in US Treasuries, pushing investors toward safer assets like German bonds. Second, the US Dollar’s weakness—possibly encouraged by policies favoring a weaker Dollar to boost manufacturing—has made US assets less attractive. Third, global economic uncertainty, including fears of a US downturn (highlighted in a New York Times article from April 10, 2025), is driving investors to seek opportunities in Europe and beyond.

Why Is This Bad for the US Economy?

This shift spells trouble for the US. A weaker Dollar makes imports more expensive, fueling inflation—already a concern with the US’s fiscal deficit and infrastructure needs. It also signals a loss of confidence in US markets, as foreign investors pull out, reducing capital inflows that fund US growth. The S&P 500’s volatility, as mentioned in the NYT article, reflects this unease, with bear market fears looming. Finally, a declining Dollar erodes the US’s global financial dominance, making it harder to finance deficits and maintain economic stability.

What next

The EURUSD surge isn’t just a currency fold—it’s a red flag. As investors flee US assets, the economy faces higher inflation, reduced investment, and a potential slowdown. What should be done is that policymakers need to address these global shifts to restore confidence, or the US risks losing its economic edge.

In Super Simple Terms:

The Euro is getting stronger against the Dollar, even though it shouldn’t be, based on interest rates. This is because investors are taking their money out of the US and putting it into other countries, which is a big change in how they’re investing.

S&P 500 Potential Downside Projections by Analysts

Strategist/Firm	Downside Target	Potential Drop % from Current	Direction	Potential Drop % from ATH	Key Catalyst/Scenario	Additional Notes
Morgan Stanley	4,500	12.28%	↓	~22%	Earnings disappointments	Particularly bearish outlook
UBS	4,700-4,900	4.48-8.38%	↓	Up to 22% from ATH	Economic downturn	Warns of potential further 10-15% drop
JPMorgan	4,800	6.43%	↓	~16%	Continued inflation concerns	Sees potential buying opportunity
Technical Analysts	4,850	5.46%	↓	21% from Feb peak	Failure to hold 5,200 support	Currently ~16% below all-time high
Barclays	4,900	4.48%	↓	~15%	Technical support breach	Focuses on technical levels
Wells Fargo	4,950	3.51%	↓	~14%	Growth concerns	Moderate bearish stance
Bank of America	5,000	2.53%	↓	12% from late March	Recession scenario	Projects year-end recovery to 5,500
Deutsche Bank	5,000	2.53%	↓	~13%	Technical breakdown	Points to key support at 5,000
Credit Suisse	5,050	1.56%	↓	~12%	Short-term volatility	Relatively optimistic outlook
Goldman Sachs	5,100	0.58%	↓	~10%	Cooling economy	Less pessimistic than peers
Citigroup	5,200	-1.36%	↑	~9%	Policy uncertainty	More moderate decline projection
Charles Schwab	5,300	-3.31%	↑	~8%	Market sentiment shift	Sees limited additional downside

Market Context

The S&P 500 currently stands at approximately 5,130, already down about 14% since the start of 2025 and approximately 16% below its all-time high. Despite this correction, analyst projections vary significantly:

• Most Bearish View: Morgan Stanley projects a further 12.28% decline to 4,500

• Most Bullish View: Charles Schwab suggests a potential 3.31% gain to 5,300

• Median Projection: Approximately 4,975, representing a ~3% additional decline

Key factors influencing these projections include:

• Tariff concerns and trade tensions

• Inflation persistence

• Potential economic slowdown or recession

• Technical support/resistance levels

• Market sentiment indicators

Despite the current downturn, the longer-term median forecast among 17 investment banks still suggests the index could reach 6,500 by year-end, representing significant upside from current levels if market conditions improve.